mathematicians! what is monte carlo simulation?

Monte Carlo basically turns deterministic into probabilistic via the use of random numbers.

so is this method reliable in business forecasting,say introducing new product to the market?

This is not math question specifically but I would have said traditional methods are better (market research). Your questions are far too general for this forum, I suggest u read up on the subject here, for example http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method If u would like to discuss, say Monte Carlo integration or other mathematical use, we can do that.

Here is a place for u to examine your new product scenario http://www.vertex42.com/ExcelArticles/mc/SalesForecast.html

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