You are a juror for a trial involving a nighttime car accident in a certain city. the make of the car is known. of the cars in the city matching this make, 85% are green and 15% are blue. a witness of the accident identified the car as blue. in reenactments of the accident, the witness correctly reported the color of the car 80% of the time. so there is a probability of 0.85 cars having green as actual color which branches out to 0.8 for reported green color and 0.2 reported blue color. there is a probability of 0.15 cars having blue as actual color which branches out to 0.2 for reported gr

Question

You are a juror for a trial involving a nighttime car accident in a certain city. the make of the car is known. of the cars in the city matching this make, 85% are green and 15% are blue. a witness of the accident identified the car as blue. in reenactments of the accident, the witness correctly reported the color of the car 80% of the time.  so there is a probability of 0.85 cars having green as actual color which branches out to 0.8 for reported green color and 0.2 reported blue color.  there is a probability of 0.15 cars having blue as actual color which branches out to 0.2 for reported gr