Question

what is the theoretical probability over a coin flipped 200 times? ( in percentage )

Answer 1

P = the probability of a success
Q = 1 - P, the probability of failure
n = the number of trials
X = the number of successes

Y = (X - nP)/sqrt(nPQ)

and stick that in a normal distribution.

using 104.5 as the number of successes, we get:

(104.5-200*0.5/sqrt(200*0.5*0.5) = 0.6363...

about 73.77 percent of the normal distribution is within that standard deviation, so your probability is about 26.22%