The probability that a parachute doesn't open is 0.1. You've done 4 jumps already and the parachute opened successfully. What is the probability that the parachute doesn't open on your 5th jump given 4 successful jumps?

Question

The probability that a parachute doesn't open is 0.1.  You've done 4 jumps already and the parachute opened successfully.  What is the probability that the parachute doesn't open on your 5th jump given 4 successful jumps?

anonymous · Answer

0.1
it is unchanged by prior success or failure

"past performance is no guarantee..."

anonymous · Answer

What you would do is multiply the probability of succes 4 times times the probability of failure (0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.1)=0.06561