Jason inherited a piece of land from his great-uncle. Owners in the area claim that there is a 45% chance that the land has oil. Jason decides to test the land for oil. He buys a kit that claims to have an 80% accuracy rate of indicating oil in the soil. What is the probability that the land has no oil and the test shows that it has oil?

Question

anonymous · Answer

@rock_mit182

anonymous · Answer

Answer choices0.09

0.11

0.36

0.44

rock_mit182 · Answer

@mathmale @myininaya

rock_mit182 · Answer

please help us out

kropot72 · Answer

|dw:1407201378350:dw|
The above probability tree shows the situation.

kropot72 · Answer

|dw:1407201635311:dw|
If you multiply the two values of probability in the path shown above, you will have the probability that the land has no oil and the test shows that it has oil.