Shelly delivers the weekly local paper to neighborhoods in her town. House numbers are even on one side of the street and odd on the other. Shelly delivers an equal number of papers to both sides of the street. Although she always aims for the front doorstep, Shelly typically misses on three of the tosses on her route each week. Design and conduct a simulation to estimate the probability that next week, Shelly's three misses will all be at odd-numbered houses.

a) Explain clearly your design of the simulation, including choice of probability tool and description of a single trial.

Question

Shelly delivers the weekly local paper to neighborhoods in her town. House numbers are even on one side of the street and odd on the other. Shelly delivers an equal number of papers to both sides of the street. Although she always aims for the front doorstep, Shelly typically misses on three of the tosses on her route each week. Design and conduct a simulation to estimate the probability that next week, Shelly's three misses will all be at odd-numbered houses. 

a) Explain clearly your design of the simulation, including choice of probability tool and description of a single trial.

tt0860 · Answer

a) Explain clearly your design of the simulation, including choice of probability tool and description of a single trial. 
b) Conduct the simulation with twenty trials and record the results. 
c) Calculate the experimental probability that all 3 of Shelly's missed papers will be at odd-numbered houses.

.whitedragon. · Answer

a) You know there will be 3 misses. Each miss has a 50% chance of the "even"side of the street and 50% chance of a miss on odd"side of the street. So you take a coin flip. heads is miss on even number and tail is miss on odd number. You flip the coin three times to simulate the delivery of the newspapers. c) The following outcomes are possible 3 heads, 2 heads 1 tail, 1 head 2 tails, 3 tials. 3 misses on odd number of houses means the simulation gives 3 tails. As each coin-flip is independent, the chance on that outcome is (1/2).(1/2).(1/2) = 1/8. b) Conduct the trial 20 times and you should get (most probably) 2 or three time the outcome : 3 tails. https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=A0LEV74YfDNX8ykAFqUPxQt.;_ylu=X3oDMTByOHZyb21tBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--?qid=20120809054808AAmFDUh&p=Shelly%20delivers%20the%20weekly%20local%20paper%20to%20neighborhoods%20in%20her%20town.%20House%20numbers%20are%20even%20on%20one%20side%20of%20the%20street%20and%20odd%20on%20the%20other.%20Shelly%20delivers%20an%20equal%20number%20of%20papers%20to%20both%20sides%20of%20the%20street.%20Although%20she%20always%20aims%20for%20the%20front%20doorstep%2C%20Shelly%20typically%20misses%20on%20three%20of%20the%20tosses%20on%20her%20route%20each%20week.%20Design%20and%20conduct%20a%20simulation%20to%20estimate%20the%20probability%20that%20next%20week%2C%20Shelly%27s%20three%20misses%20will%20all%20be%20at%20odd-numbered%20houses.