Question

You select a marble without looking and then put it back. If you do this 40 times, what is the best prediction possible for the number of times you will pick an orange marble?

Answer 1

I'm thinking it would be a 1 of 40 chance

Answer 2

suppose the probability of getting an orange marble is P. for 40 picks, on average, the expected # of times of picking an orange marble is simply 40*P.