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To solve expected value problems, we multiply x * P(x) , and sum up the terms. So here the expected value for the maintenance plan coverage is .01 * 400 + .02 *200 + .10 * 100 = 18 So in the long run you will gain 18 dollars if you use the maintenance plan. So to be fair to the person offering the maintenance plan, it should cost 18 dollars.
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