Jason inherited a piece of land from his great-uncle. Owners in the area claim that there is a 45% chance that the land has oil. Jason decides to test the land for oil. He buys a kit that claims to have an 80% accuracy rate of indicating oil in the soil. If the test predicts that there is no oil, what is the probability after the test that the land has oil?

A)0.1698
B)0.2217
C)0.5532
D)0.7660
its not C

Question

Jason inherited a piece of land from his great-uncle. Owners in the area claim that there is a 45% chance that the land has oil. Jason decides to test the land for oil. He buys a kit that claims to have an 80% accuracy rate of indicating oil in the soil. If the test predicts that there is no oil, what is the probability after the test that the land has oil?

A)0.1698
B)0.2217
C)0.5532
D)0.7660
its not C

tkhunny · Answer

1) It is a silly question.  The probability that the land has oil is exactly the same before and after the test.
2) It is a silly question.  We do not know that test's accuracy when predicting "No Oil".  Or, are we to assume 80% both ways?

Perhaps it would help to tell us what section or technique you are studying and then show us your initial efforts at a solution.

anonymous · Answer

I'm doing geometry 2 plato online and its called Using Probability to Analyze Decisions and Strategies @tkhunny