A statistical test is performed, and its P-value turns out to be about 3%. Which of the following must be true? Pick all that are correct.

a) The null hypothesis is true.
b)There is about a 3% chance that the null hypothesis is true.
c) The alternative hypothesis is true. d) There is about a 97% chance that the alternative hypothesis is true.
e) If the null hypothesis were true, there would be about a 3% chance of getting data that were like those that were observed in the sample or even further in the direction of the alternative.

Question

A statistical test is performed, and its P-value turns out to be about 3%. Which of the following must be true? Pick all that are correct. 

a) The null hypothesis is true. 
b)There is about a 3% chance that the null hypothesis is true. 
c) The alternative hypothesis is true. d) There is about a 97% chance that the alternative hypothesis is true. 
e) If the null hypothesis were true, there would be about a 3% chance of getting data that were like those that were observed in the sample or even further in the direction of the alternative.

anonymous · Answer

f) The P-value of about 3% was computed assuming that the null hypothesis was true

anonymous · Answer

I  believe that f is definitely correct.  Also c and b..but not sure.. any suggestions?

I forgot to state that the CUT-OFF is 5%

amistre64 · Answer

a) The null hypothesis is true.  
        3 < 5 so this is bad

b)There is about a 3% chance that the null hypothesis is true. 
        wouldnt this relate to power of the test?  at any rate i believe its bad

c) The alternative hypothesis is true. 
        this is a bad wording:  the null is rejected does not imply the alt to be true

d) There is about a 97% chance that the alternative hypothesis is true. 
        at 3% there is a 97% confidence interval about the null, so this is off

e) If the null hypothesis were true, there would be about a 3% chance of getting data that were like those that were observed in the sample or even further in the direction of the alternative. 
      this sounds like the most reasonable to me

anonymous · Answer

@amistre64  i believe that f is correct.  so you say that e is correct? (e and f?)

anonymous · Answer

@kropot72  can you help us pleasE? your field ;)

amistre64 · Answer

i would lean towards e and f then .. but thats my opinion

anonymous · Answer

do you agree for f?

amistre64 · Answer

im leary of f simply due to the wording of assuming something to be true;  the Pvalue was calculated using the null as a basis to compare with.

amistre64 · Answer

but as far as porrly worded stuff goes .... its better than most :)

anonymous · Answer

Thank you man!

kropot72 · Answer

The only correct choice is f). The p-value does not involve any alternative hypothesis, therefore e) is not correct.
Calculation of the p-value assumes the null hypothesis is true.

kropot72 · Answer

See the information at this link for verification: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value

kropot72 · Answer

I agree with @amistre64 about the bad wording of the question!

amistre64 · Answer

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