Question

Maria is tossing a fair coin. She tosses the coin thirteen times and it lands on heads six times. If Maria tosses the coin the fourteenth time, what is the best prediction of the probability that it will land on heads?

Answer 1

@perl @SolomonZelman

Answer 2

well, we already know what happened before, so that doesn't matter.
You only have 2 outcomes.

Answer 3

It only counts to do 6/13 right? the extra information comes on the fact that it's on the "fourteenth time."

Answer 4

So that will be 46% right?

Answer 5

I disagree

Answer 6

i disagree too

Answer 7

I don't think the previous 13 times matter. It can be either heads or tails.

what happened happened, and for 1 event of a coin toss the probability should be (as you know).

Answer 8

hint: coins have no memory

Answer 9

what he said

Answer 10

yes, perl:)

Answer 11

so the probability should never change (sorry for pooping in out of nowhere)

Answer 12

The coin tosses are independent events. The probability is 50% no matter the previous outcomes.

Answer 13

what he said.

Answer 14

yes, for 1 coin toss the probability is same, regardless of what happened before.

Answer 15

So what will the expression be, for me to solve?

Answer 16

what is the probability of a coin landing on heads, if you are tossing 1 coin ?

Answer 17

1/2

Answer 18

yes

Answer 19

And that is what you are doing. You are tossing 1 coin.
The only thing is that they are confusing you by commenting what happened the other 13 times before (as if it makes a difference, when actually it does NOT)

Answer 20

So the answer is 1/2?

Answer 21

yup

Answer 22

Okay thanks. I need help on a couple of other questions, because i have a test tomorrow.

Answer 23

...if you don't mind.

Answer 24

I am i can try...