Question

Monty Hall Problem (for dude)

Answer 1

@dude

Answer 2

You're on a game show. There are three doors (two of them have a goat, one of them has a car). The host asks you to pick a door. Then, the host picks one of the OTHER two doors and reveals a goat.

You have two choices, now. You can stay on your door, or switch to the un-opened door. What should you do?

Answer 3

@Bearclaws72

Answer 4

have fun guys

Answer 5

hmmmmmmm

Answer 6

I stay

Answer 7

why?

Answer 8

You know what I switch

Answer 9

ok, but why?

Answer 10

To the middle

Answer 11

Yea i would go to the middle

Answer 12

just curious - what's your guys' reasoning?

Answer 13

Well Im a lucky guy but honestly think of it theres a goat behind a random door meaning theres a 1/3 chance of you picking the right door

Answer 14

And most of the game show hosts try to trick you so idk maybe he wanted to throw me off

Answer 15

you're on the right track with the 1/3 thing

Answer 16

You capitalized other, thats why x'D

Answer 17

lol

Answer 18

keep in mind that the host always opens a goat door

Answer 19

Aren your chances 50-50 though?

Answer 20

not 50-50 (that's a common misconception!)

Answer 21

oh ;-;

Answer 22

you guys are getting there

Answer 23

there's two possible scenarios: you pick a car door on the first try (1/3) or you don't (2/3)

Answer 24

if you picked the car first, then switching always results in a loss
if you pick the goat first, then switching always results in a win

Answer 25

there's a 1/3 chance of the first scenario happening
there's a 2/3 chance of the second scenario happening

so switching wins 2/3 of the time

Answer 26

what's interesting about this problem, is that the host gives you valuable information that increases your chances of winning if you switch

if a random person were to walk in right after the host opens the door, then that random person only has a 50-50 chance of picking the right door

Answer 27

I think i sort of get it

Answer 28

I remember this, it was actually used in a movie called Blackjack XD

Answer 29

Oh wait no it's called 21....