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Politics 10 Online
BlankSpace:

The 2024 election is extraordinarily close, who do you think will win?

BlankSpace:

Based on polling data that I've seen, it appears to be a coin flip to me. Most of the swing states are within margin of error, so it's possible that either candidate could win any of those states. It could even be a landslide for Kamala Harris, or even a landslide for Donald Trump and both wouldn't be an unreasonable guess in my opinion.

Breathless:

neither

Breathless:

B)

BlankSpace:

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BlankSpace:

538 currently projects 55/45 odds for Trump

BlankSpace:

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ihy:

If I'd to be completely honest, I'd say it's a 50/50 chance.

ihy:

According, to most statistics and news platforms, it seems like a pretty close election.

BlankSpace:

I think Kamala Harris needs to win Pennsylvania and either Wisconsin or Nevada to win, that's her two primary routes. She needs PA to win though.

ihy:

None of the candidates will probably win by a landslide.

ihy:

I did recently hear that Trump is campaigning in PA at the moment?

BlankSpace:

Oh and technically Michigan is a tie as well, but I think it's gonna go to Kamala

ihy:

Who knows as of right now? We just have to cross our fingers and wait until November.

ihy:

Election day is in under 2 weeks I suspect.

BlankSpace:

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he's guaranteed the win, unless North Carolina or Georgia flip

ihy:

2.5M+ Georgians have voted or have done early voting.

BlankSpace:

So it's looking like Kamala Harris needs to do slightly more work to win than Trump does

ihy:

Honestly, Trump didn't have to do much when he was running for President 4 years ago either.

BlankSpace:

@ihy wrote:
2.5M+ Georgians have voted or have done early voting.
I don't really pay attention to early voting because I find it unreliable as a metric, especially if compared to 2020.

ihy:

@blankspace wrote:
@ihy wrote:
2.5M+ Georgians have voted or have done early voting.
I don't really pay attention to early voting because I find it unreliable as a metric, especially if compared to 2020.
Very true.

BlankSpace:

In 2020, a large portion of mail-in/early voters were Democrats avoiding crowded areas due to the pandemic, as Republicans were less likely to care about the pandemic

ihy:

@blankspace wrote:
In 2020, a large portion of mail-in/early voters were Democrats avoiding crowded areas due to the pandemic, as Republicans were less likely to care about the pandemic
There was quite a bit of voter fraud as well.

BlankSpace:

I think voter fraud has been overblown

BlankSpace:

There's always voter fraud in every election, generally at such small scales that it's irrelevant to the results

BlankSpace:

The amount of voter fraud in 2020 is so minimal that there's no possible way it influenced the election to any meaningful degree

ihy:

You're right on that one. But I would like the thank you for revitalizing my political understanding. It seems like you know quite a bit!

BlankSpace:

@ihy wrote:
You're right on that one. But I would like the thank you for revitalizing my political understanding. It seems like you know quite a bit!
No problem, I am very invested in politics so I research it a lot

BlankSpace:

I think there's a very big issue with the current landscape of politics though, and it's directly causing the election to be as close as it is when it probably shouldn't be

sllo:

Its tough really, They both suck if you look at there perspectives. But either way I'd vote for trump bc he's funny😌🤟

BlankSpace:

@sllo wrote:
Its tough really, They both suck if you look at there perspectives. But either way I'd vote for trump bc he's funny😌🤟
I think Trump would suck more, especially economically

BlankSpace:

He proposed a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods imported into the US, and a flat universal 10-20% tariff on all goods imported into the US. Prices would certainly go up significantly due to that.

marienne:

50/50 chance

notmeta:

@sllo wrote:
Its tough really, They both suck if you look at there perspectives. But either way I'd vote for trump bc he's funny😌🤟
racist ≠ funny

notmeta:

I think Harris will win. I might be biased but shes been drawing in crowds like crazy. Obama's support has also helped her. But I think It will be very close.

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