Question

Alright here's an interesting one.You are playing coin toss and you win if you get heads.So the probability is 1/2 right?Now to win twice in a row your probability must be 1/4.So now you win against A and now you are playing with B and so now your probability to win must be 1/4 but B will think it is 1/2.Which is correct?

Answer 1

gamblers fallacy. outcome isn't dependent on previous outcomes

Answer 2

probability you win against B is 1/2, probability you win against A and B is 1/4

Answer 3

Is the statement "Probability to win against A and B" the same as "Probability to win against B now that you have won against A" in pure mathematical sense

Answer 4

on the second statement, you have assumption that you have already won again A.

Answer 5

so to win against A and B, your probability is 1/2

Answer 6

Let me rephrase the second statement,"The probability to win against B if you win against A"

Answer 7

still, i think it's 1/2, since it's probability to win against B ... if you win against A
after all, i can say that, if I win against A, and i have probability 1/2 against B,

but the outcome out whole event will have probability 1/4

Answer 8

But what is the probability to win twice in a row?

Answer 9

1/4

Answer 10

What is the probability to win second time in a row?

Answer 11

what is the probability to win the event after losing to A

Answer 12

1/2.Ok I think I get it

Answer 13

no ... it's 0, since to win event, you need to win twice in a row, and we have an assumption, that you lost in first toss ...

so, assumption based on if did the job ... i must say ... more verbal type question

Answer 14

No I meant it is 1/2 to win against B after losing against A.But the probability to win the event is 0 as you said.In any case I think I understand now.Thanx

Answer 15

i totally agree with you