can anyone help me with this !
A ghastly crime is committed in a large city of 18 million people. The police arrest someone for the crime. A DNA test shows a close match. Experts indicate that approximately 3 people in the city would be expected to match this closely. The prosecutor argues that 3 out of 18 million shows that the probability of an innocent person having this close a match is 1 in 6 million and that, therefore, the accused must be guilty. Are there any flaws in the prosecutor's reasoning?

Question

can anyone  help me with this !
A ghastly crime is committed in a large city of 18 million people. The police arrest someone for the crime. A DNA test shows a close match. Experts indicate that approximately 3 people in the city would be expected to match this closely. The prosecutor argues that 3 out of 18 million shows that the probability of an innocent person having this close a match is 1 in 6 million and that, therefore, the accused must be guilty. Are there any flaws in the prosecutor's reasoning?

mertsj · Answer

If there are 3 people in the city that have the correct DNA profile and 2 of them are innocent the probability of innocent is 2/18,000,000