Question

Shelly delivers the weekly local paper to neighborhoods in her town. House numbers are even on one side of the street and odd on the other. Shelly delivers an equal number of papers to both sides of the street. Although she always aims for the front doorstep, Shelly typically misses on three of the tosses on her route each week. Design and conduct a simulation to estimate the probability that next week, Shelly's three misses will all be at odd-numbered houses.

Hint: You can set up the experiment using 3 coins to collect the data. Allow one side of the coin to represent Heads (evens) & one

Answer 1

a) Explain clearly your design of the simulation, including choice of probability tool and description of a single trial.
b) Conduct the simulation with twenty trials and record the results.
c) Calculate the experimental probability that all 3 of Shelly's missed papers will be at odd-numbered houses.

Answer 2

we can model the situation as flipping three coins, where side Heads represents an even missed toss , and side Tails represents an odd numbered house missed toss

Answer 3

so she misses three tosses, but the probability that she missed at an even numbered house is the same as the probability that she missed the toss at an odd numbered house. ok?

Answer 4

so our sample set to model the situation theoretically is { HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}

Answer 5

and we want to know what is probability she will miss all three front doorsteps at odd numbered houses. in our model this corresponds to probability of getting TTT. which is 1/8

Answer 6

in our sample space all the events are equally likely, so the probability is 1/8

Answer 7

you can use excel to conduct a simulation

Answer 8

Thank you very much!

Answer 9

the simulation is the tricky part

Answer 10

do you have excel?