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Mathematics 11 Online
OpenStudy (idku):

Probability question.

OpenStudy (idku):

Maria is playing the bean bag toss at a local fair. The game costs 2 dollars to play. Maria has 4 bean bags to toss into the jar in front of her. The prize she wins is determined by the amount of bean bags she is able to toss in a jar from 8 feet away. If maria gets all 4 bag beans in the jar she will win a free unlimited rides passes. If maria gets 3 bag beans in the jar she will win a ticket to ride a Ferris wheel. If maria gets 2 bag beans in the jar she will win a free bag of cotton candy. If maria gets only 1 bag bean in the jar she will not win a prize. What is the probability that Maria wins a free unlimited rides passes or a ticket to ride a Ferris wheel ?

OpenStudy (idku):

@ganeshie8 @sid0830 @ikram002p

OpenStudy (dan815):

-.-

OpenStudy (dan815):

That all depends if Maria is Shaquiloneal or Lebron james

OpenStudy (dan815):

For arguments sake Lets say there is an even probability of success and failure On every shot, 1/2 chance of Win or fail

OpenStudy (idku):

no seriously, I just thought that the probability to get 1 in, is 1/2 to get in 2, is 1/2 * 1/2 (thus 1/4) so P(3)=1/8 P(4)=1/16 Right ?

OpenStudy (idku):

if I am correct, I just don't get the P(3 or 4)

OpenStudy (dan815):

to win four in a row that is (1/2)^4 to win any 3 times is (1/2)^3*(4C3)

OpenStudy (dan815):

now we are okay with both probaililty, p(3 win or 4 wins) = P(3) + p(4) =( 1/2)^3*4C3 + 1/2^4

OpenStudy (idku):

why *4C3 ?

OpenStudy (dan815):

Because there are that many ways to win 3

OpenStudy (dan815):

times out of 4

ganeshie8 (ganeshie8):

exactly 3 times should be : S S S F

OpenStudy (dan815):

like the first 3 or , the first 2 and the last shot or the last 3 shots.. or the first shot and the last 2 shots

ganeshie8 (ganeshie8):

(1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) (1/2)^4

OpenStudy (idku):

4C3=4!(3!(4-3)! = 4

ganeshie8 (ganeshie8):

that gives 4C3 * (1/2)^4 right ?

OpenStudy (idku):

I mean 4!/3!(4-3)! and it is 4.

OpenStudy (dan815):

yes makes sense right.. if u think about it, SSSF, there are 4 places for that fail to go

OpenStudy (idku):

so 1/2 + 1/16 ?

OpenStudy (dan815):

oh my bad 11/2^4!!

OpenStudy (dan815):

forgot about the failure prob

OpenStudy (dan815):

its p(3)+p(4)=4c3*1/2^4 + 1/2^4

ganeshie8 (ganeshie8):

p(3 win or 4 wins) = P(3) + p(4) =( 1/2)^4*4C3 + 1/2^4 = 5/16 ?

OpenStudy (idku):

1/4 + 1/16 ? and that is 5/16

OpenStudy (dan815):

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