Probability theory predicts that there is a 44% chance of a water polo team winning any particular match. If the water polo team playing 2 matches is simulated 10,000 times, in about how many of the simulations would you expect them to win exactly one match?

A. 2464
B. 1936
C. 3136
D. 4928

Question

Probability theory predicts that there is a 44% chance of a water polo team winning any particular match. If the water polo team playing 2 matches is simulated 10,000 times, in about how many of the simulations would you expect them to win exactly one match?

A. 2464
B. 1936
C. 3136
D. 4928

miracrown · Answer

Did you attempt this yet?

hockeychick23 · Answer

Yea, I eliminated B and C, I did .44(10,000) and got 4,440 but I wasn't sure if i should be dividing it by 2 because there are 2 matches

miracrown · Answer

So if we played 1 match 100 tiles, how many times would we win if we have 44% chance of winning?

hockeychick23 · Answer

44

hockeychick23 · Answer

if the match was played 100 times

miracrown · Answer

you did make one mistake there...

perl · Answer

first lets find probability of getting exactly one win out of 2 matches

perl · Answer

so the two possibilities for winning exactly one match is 

win first game and lose second

lose first game and win second

perl · Answer

which is equal to .44 * (1-.44)  + (1-.44) * .44

hockeychick23 · Answer

ok, so 1-.44= .56(.44)= .2464 + .2464 = .4928

perl · Answer

now multiply that by the total number of games

hockeychick23 · Answer

ok 10000(.4928)= 4928