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Assume that we have a box containing 7 blue balls and 9 red balls. Assume that we pick (and remove) 2 balls. Then we pick one extra ball later. What is the probability that the third ball is blue knowing that the previous two balls were both red?
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you now have a total of how many balls after picking 2 red balls ?
The first two balls we removed are red. So, that leaves 7 blue balls, and 7 red balls So, the probability the third ball is blue, is 7/14 = 1/2
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