Question

Probability of injury from car trip is 1in 50K (.00002). average trips a person will take in liftime is 16K.
Whats the probability of being injury? can i get help to set this up por favor!

Answer 1

poisson distribution for this one

Answer 2

what is that?

Answer 3

oh well if that is not clear, them maybe you are supposed to do it a different way

Answer 4

im gona do a ratio of 16 to 50 and im gona in crease the numerator from taht resuilt

Answer 5

multiply 16,000 by 0.00002 and get .32

Answer 6

i got 3.125 to 16000, hope its right. hah

Answer 7

no i don't think so

Answer 8

oh wait. your right. your way makes more sense.

Answer 9

this is a set up for poisson distribution, because the probabiliy is very small and the number of "experiments' miles driven is very large
multiply them together and get .32
probability you have no accidents is
\[e^{-.32}\]

Answer 10

and so the probabilty you have at least one accident is
\[1-e^{-.32}\]

Answer 11

im trying to find prob of yes getting injured tho.

Answer 12

yes, so compute the probability of no accidents, which is
\[e^{-.32}\] so the probability of getting at least one accident is
\[1-e^{-.32}\]

Answer 13

dang bro, thats way ahead of me. but thansk anyways

Answer 14

you could also compute \((99998)^{160000}\) and subtract that from 1

Answer 15

that is the probability you do not get in an accident on one trip, to the power of the number of trips, and that will get the probability you get no accidents.
subtract from one to get the probability that there is at least one accident

Answer 16

OH!! so its 1 minus .32 or .68% .. i was thinking it was 32% which was confusing me.

Answer 17

actually i think that is not right. let me check with a calculator

Answer 18

this is what i thin it is
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28.00002%29^16000

Answer 19

almost identitcal to firt answer i wrote
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1-e^%28-.32%29

Answer 20

alrite cool. thanks dude.

Answer 21

yw

Answer 22

The problem is an example of risk over time, which we discussed on Monday. You need to multiply the probability of one event by the total number of times it is likely to occur to calculate a life time risk. Your calculations below are for successive events not cumulative events.

Answer 23

thats what the teacher said. i have no idea what the hell she is saying. lol

Answer 24

haha, its just 1 divided by 16000 dude. wtf were we doin? lol