Question

Does this look like a plausible simulation of virus population vs time? We start with 100 viruses at time 0 and prescribe a drug at time 150.

http://i.imgur.com/g4oug.png

Answer 1

Could be.

Answer 2

It depends on how fancy and cutting edge the science you're considering is.

In a 'classical' model, I would say no. I would expect the sub population of resistant viruses to be present in the population before administering the drug, albeit in small numbers. In a very current and cutting edge context, I would be more hesitant to dismiss it - some lines of inquiry and comparisons of experimental results with computational models suggest that some bacteria (I emphasize: not viruses, bacteria) have mechanisms to adapt to specific antibiotic challenges. This is apparently contrary to the long held and commonly taught mantra, "mutations are random and occur spontaneously, etc, etc" so most scientists are very cautious in their acceptance and language when discussing these results. And some very recent research is starting to uncover the unusual and non-canonical mechanisms by which these stimulus provoked mutations occur.

So in accordance with recent results, yes, it is within the ball park of possibility that the group of resistant bacteria appeared after dosing with antibiotics. Though I certainly do not make any statements about whether that is or is not the 'right' answer, in terms of real science and in terms of the problem.

Answer 3

I see, thank you a detailed reponse. A sub population of resistant viruses already exists in a pretreatment preiod, this is what explains a little jump at 150. I chose not to show its growth on (0,150) because a "drug" is not defined on this interval, but I can now see how this leads to confusion. Think I have to siplay it on the earlier stage. "Random and spotaneous" mutation is part of the problem definition so I am fine with it. Thanks again.