Question

Medal + Fan!

5. You record the sea temperature at 12°N 45°W to be 27.5°C, the humidity to be very high, and a very light breeze. Do you expect a hurricane to form in these conditions? Explain why or why not. (5 points)

Answer 1

I would be more influenced by the presence of a low barometric pressure to predict a hurricane.

Answer 2

Hurricanes form in regions where there is a sudden/abrupt change in pressure gradient across a water body (i.e. a pressure edge effect). In order to identify if a hurricane may be formed, let us evaluate the evidences provided thus far:

1. A relatively high sea temperature of 27.5°C. This would result in a high rate of evaporation on the sea surface and an expansion (& rising) of the air above the sea surface to higher altitudes, which might be conducive for the formation of a hurricane.

Nonetheless, further evidence (as provided in the question) suggests that it is currently unlikely for a hurricane to form for the following reasons:

2. There is evidence of a very light breeze. This implies that there is a very slight incremental change in pressure across the water surface (a gradual pressure gradient), which would not be favorable for the formation of a hurricane.

3. A high humidity recorded. This implies that most of the water vapour (due to the high rate of evaporation from the sea surface) has resulted in a water parcel accumulating at lower altitudes rather than rising to higher altitudes which would not be conducive for hurricane formation.

Thus although it would be viable to conclude that a hurricane would not form under these conditions, I would be wary and monitor the humidity, atmospheric pressure, windspeeds and temperature over the sea surface for determining the potential likelihood of a shift detected in any of these parameters. This context would thus be classified in a list of potential hurricane candidates.