Question

A new medical screening test is used to detect a rare, non-life-threatening condition. If a person has this condition, the test always detects it. Approximately 0.1% of the population has the condition. Over many trials, the test returns a positive result 3% of the time. Julio takes the test and gets a positive result. To the nearest tenth of a percent, what is the probability that Julio actually has the condition?

Answer 1

bayes theorem, yes?

Answer 2

i think

Answer 3

yep... do you know how to make the tree?

Answer 4

not really

Answer 5

first, let's define a few things to make our life easier...

let + represent a positive test result,
- represent a negative test result

H represent a healthy person (free from the disease)
D represent a person with the disease.


The probability you are looking for is P(D|+), correct?

Answer 6

yes

Answer 7

By the way.... @jacob44
\(\Huge\bf \color{yellow}{Welcome~to~OpenStudy!!}\hspace{-310pt}\color{cyan}{Welcome~to~OpenStudy!!}\hspace{-307.1pt}\color{midnightblue}{Welcome~to~\color{purple}{Open}}\color{blue}{Study!!!!}\)

Answer 8

thanks

Answer 9

Your Welcome:D

Answer 10

thats kinda confusing

Answer 11

oops, i wrote my conditionals backwards...