Question

The estimated probability of a bowler getting strike during a particular frame is 41%. If several simulations of the bowler bowling 2 frames were performed, what percentage of the simulations would the bowler be most likely to get a strike in each of the two frames?
A. 61%
B. 38%
C. 18%
D. 81%

Answer 1

if we assume that the events are independent

Answer 2

we can multiply probabilities

Answer 3

So its 41% * 41% ?

Answer 4

let me think about it, one moment

Answer 5

yes i think thats right

Answer 6

ok, when i multiplied them i got 16.81%

Answer 7

I'm just unsure if i should be taking the percentage thats closest to 41 which would be 38 or not

Answer 8

18% could be the answer, it might be a typo

Answer 9

i could try this with a real simulation

Answer 10

oh ok cool, how do i do that?

Answer 11

yes i checked i got .41 * .41 = .1681

the closest answer looks like 18%

Answer 12

ok thanks!

Answer 13

also the questions says , what percentage would the bowler be most likely to bowl, so it is not asking for exact percentage, only whats closest

Answer 14

oh yea thanks(:

Answer 15

by the way, i was kidding. a real simulation is going bowling :)

Answer 16

hahaha awesome(:

Answer 17

you could simulate this with excel *

Answer 18

oh cool

Answer 19

but the nice thing about probability, we don't have to simulate . we can use our knowledge of how probability works .

there are situations where we would have to use a simulation, since we simply dont know anything about it.