Question

I have to make a carnival game for a probability project, any ideas? Every comment counts!

Answer 1

something involving a wheel spinning, probably

Answer 2

Like a wheel of fortune? @alyssa_xo

Answer 3

kinda, but I can't remember which carnival game used that

Answer 4

Hmm, I want it to be unique.

Answer 5

you can make it so that if you guess the toy, and it lands on it, you win the toy

or maybe rolling a gigantic dice twice and you have to guess the sum

Answer 6

That will be hard to find the probability of though. I have to find these of the game idea.
a. Theoretical probability of winning the game,
b. expenses,
c. expected payoff,
d. profit,
e. rules of the game,
f. prizes and how to earn the prizes, and
g. why the game should be selected as a game for the carnival.

Answer 7

how is that hard? there's a constant probability assuming a closed system

Answer 8

do you have to make a physical game? if not, then a wheel with 6 choices will always land on 1/6

Answer 9

Yeah so there is 6 choices on the wheel and 6 toys to choose from. @alyssa_xo

Answer 10

well that's a bad game, you're always going to lose
you want to make money, put 3 or 4 toys and 2 nothing spots

Answer 11

Well no, there will be 6 toys, and they choose one out of the 6. and they have to get that 1 on the wheel in order to win. If they win that toy they get to keep the toy?

Answer 12

ooh, that works too. I figured something like this

Answer 13

Maybe spread the nothings around?

Answer 14

they're pretty spread out right now

Answer 15

So which one should I use? Yours or mine?

Answer 16

oh yeah, I like yours better

Answer 17

So the probabilty of winning is 1/6?

Answer 18

probability of winning = number of spins that can win/total chances

there are 3 winning slots and 6 total

Answer 19

So 3/6

Answer 20

yea. this is of course assuming that it's all random, meaning you can't call out what you want and have it land on it

Answer 21

for example if you call out bear, your chance of winning is 1/6

Answer 22

but if you just roll, you have 3/6 or 1/2 chance of winning

Answer 23

How can we make it more complex then just spinning a wheel to win a prize?

Answer 24

idk, have you never been to a carnival? they're not really hard

Answer 25

do you mean like those games where it's impossible to win?

Answer 26

They are very hard for me lol, thats why I hardly ever play them. And yes

Answer 27

lol, the only trick I have is those games where you have to put the ball in the hole or the ring on the peg,

the really cheap carnivals will make it so that the balls are too big

the decent carnivals will make it so that the dealer can get it in from above the line, but you have to shoot it from behind the line making it impossible

the casinos will make it the hardest and just have the game set up against you

Answer 28

this is a school project, what you have is fine

Answer 29

Okay sweet. So which one are we doing? A wheel of fortune to win a toy or you pick a toy and if it lands on it you win it?

The cost for the first option is $3 and the cost for the second option (where you pick the toy ) is only $1 cause it's unlikely that they will win it.

Answer 30

yeah, I didn't realize it until you asked for the chances, it's better to make them guess it

Answer 31

the cost for you or the cost for the customer

Answer 32

The cost for the customer.

Answer 33

how much do the toys cost?

Answer 34

The cost of the toys are like 1-5 dollar correct?

Answer 35

I think 1 dollar keeps it simple.

If the toy costs 1 dollar, and they pay 1 dollar, they have a 17% chance of winning
even if you give them 2 or 3 spins for 1 dollar, they only have a 33.3% chance or a 66% chance

Answer 36

now there's our limitation, if we want profit, we should keep it under 50%

Answer 37

so give them 2 spins for 1 dollar, you're guaranteed money that way and they think they can win

Answer 38

How did you get those calculations?

Answer 39

1/6 = 16.66666
2/6 = 33.33333
3/6 = 50

Answer 40

Oh nice.

Answer 41

So 2 out of 6. Okay. Let me write some info down now.

Answer 42

So for A. it is 2/6 = .33?

@alyssa_xo

Answer 43

yeah

Answer 44

@alyssa_xo What does expected payoff mean?

Answer 45

I think it's how often and how much you expect to pay out

Answer 46

a. Theoretical probability of winning the game,
1/6
b. expenses,
$1/toy
c. expected payoff
I'm not sure, I think it's $1/6 spins
d. profit,
$5/toy (they have to spin 6 times to win once, theoretically)

e. rules of the game,
call out a guess, spin the wheel
f. prizes and how to earn the prizes, and
3 different 99 cent toys
g. why the game should be selected as a game for the carnival.
because it's a moneymakaaaaaaaaa

Answer 47

Niceee Thanks!

Answer 48

wait why is g there
are they actually gonna make your game if you win?

Answer 49

Lol na

Answer 50

oh, then change my answer

Answer 51

I will.

Answer 52

I can't reply to that message
ideally, if you're going to pretend they have good odds, you could draw the colors so that the prizes bleed onto the "nothing"s

Answer 53

and give them 2 spins

Answer 54

by that I mean this
now the real prize ends where the line comes out of the circle, but it looks like it's bigger to the guy