Jason inherited a piece of land from his great-uncle. Owners in the area claim that there is a 45% chance that the land has oil. Jason decides to test the land for oil. He buys a kit that claims to have an 80% accuracy rate of indicating oil in the soil. What is the probability that the land has no oil and the test shows that there is no oil?
45% chance that the land doesn't have oil. And the kit has an 80% accuracy of indicating oil, so if we take 80% of 45 we have 36%. Now 36% is that there is oil, but 100-36% is the chance that there is no oil, so what is the percent probability?
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